So, most likely you will not see any lower budget productions on Blu-Ray.

On another front it is not sure whether Blu-Ray will beat the simplicity of downloadable movies. They for sure have a number of advantages: virtually immedeate availability. Scratch resistance (great for kiddies films). No loose DVDs flying around the TV set.

And then looms the question of the logevity of the HD 720p / 1080i format, with professional cameras already moving up towards 2k, 3k and even 4k.

[P]roducers of industrial and non-broadcast content are required to pay a $2,500 licensing fee to author and distribute Blu-Ray. Then, each producer is required to pay a $3,000 one-time AACS license fee, plus a per-title fee for EACH replicated Blu-Ray disc. […] Sony DADC is quoting that fee at $1,585 per title […].

Then there’s the per disc replication cost, which varies by quantity, and finally, there’s a $0.04 per disc fee for AACS and $0.01 per disc if you want SONY DADC to administer the payments to AACS on your behalf.

So let’s say a small local company ordered a little presentation film, which cost $2,500 to make. They want 50 copies on HD. This would then cost: 2500+3000+1585+50*.05=over $7,000. Or over $140 per disc. And that does not include the actual replication/duplication costs.
If this should really be true, it would put an end to Blu-Ray HD distribution for small productions, even before it had a chance to start. It would cost more to distribute a program than to actually produce it.